Danica Bowl Repoistory

Mathematical Draft Grades

It is the end of the regular season, so you know what that means, end of the year grades.  That's right, below I have compiled everyone's true mathematical draft grade. This was done by looking at everyone's drafted roster and pulling the points each team accumulated from starting those players. This means, if you drafted a player but never started them, you don't get credit for their points (example Kirk Cousins went for 3 dollars but was never started so he provided 0 points towards Ray's grade).

From there, I took the total points accrued by each player and divided it by their draft salary. This got me a points per dollar value for each player (example Jaylen Waddle totaled 113.6 points as a starter for Frank, he was drafted for 21 dollars, this means his points per dollar spent was 5.41). I took all of those values and added them together to get a total value for each roster.

I then ranked the 12 teams from most to least points per dollar value. Below you can see those results, there are 12 teams and 6 grades so 2 teams per grade. 

For the 4 categories under each team, there are some caveats. First, defenses were not counted, they are streamed a lot and there were a number of instances where someone bid 1 dollar for a defense started them for a  week and had 8 points, throwing the avg off. Second, to be the worst pick, the manager had to start that player at some point in the season. This means that even though Jonathan Brooks went for $7, he never started so he technically doesn't qualify. That falls under the wasted dollars category; this is money spent in the draft on players that never started for your team.

Let me know what you all think and if you have any suggestions to improve this let me know.

Editor's Rant: I thought this would be a fun quick project that could replace the power rankings because the regular season was over. Boy, was I wrong. Getting the roster data from Sleeper wasn't too hard, but getting the draft board was another thing entirely. Apparently, Sleeper doesn't actually have a native draft function, it uses another program with a Sleeper wrapper. This means you can't just export the draft board, you have to do API queries and then format that data in Excel. After doing that, I wanted to compare roster data to the drafted teams BUT the draft program uses the naming convention, manager username, first initial last name, to identify the player. Sleeper uses Team Name, Player First Name, Last Name to identify the person, so that meant I had to manually relabel the draft program data to match Sleeper's. So if you ever wonder why Sleeper is wonky, it is because it is actually 4 different programs in a big trench coat (Drafting, Roster Management, Chat Function, Betting)

Draft Grade S

Davante's Inferno (8-4)

Starter Points Drafted: 300.48

Best Pick: $1 Brock Bowers, 121.2 points (121.2 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $26 DJ Moore, 83.3 (3.2 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $24 Lamar Jackson, 375.4 (37.93 Pp$)
Wasted $: 15

 Ballbusters (5-7)

Starter Points Drafted: 263.76

Best Pick: $1 Jordan Addison, 121.4 points (121.4 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $1 Joshua Palmer, 2.9 (2.9 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $53 Amon-Ra St. Brown, 187.68 (3.54 Pp$)
Wasted $: 2

Draft Grade A

To Infinity & Bijan (10-2)

Starter Points Drafted: 167.56

Best Pick: $7 Jayden Daniels, 265.52 points (37.93 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $16 D'Andre Swift, 6.2 (0.39 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $7 Jayden Daniels, 265.52 (37.93 Pp$)
Wasted $: 9

TakinMyTalens2Manila (6-6)

Starter Points Drafted: 136.83

Best Pick: $2 Chuba Hubbard, 178.7 points (89.35 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $47 Travis Etienne,  71.7 (1.52 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $14 Jordan Love, 193.9 (13.85 Pp$)
Wasted $: 4

Draft Grade B

BucketsOfSauce (4-8)

Starter Points Drafted: 132.07

Best Pick: $3 Khalil Shakir, 93.9 points (31.3 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $50 Isiah Pacheco, 40.9 (0.82 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $18 Jalen Hurts, 308.48 (17.14 Pp$)
Wasted $: 14

 Jefferson Aeroplane (10-2)

Starter Points Drafted: 116.33

Best Pick: $1 Dallas Goedert, 41.1 points (41.1 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $11 Trevor Lawrence, 13.28 (1.21 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $57 Justin Jefferson, 200.68 (3.41 Pp$)
Wasted $: 5

Draft Grade C

Burrows Over Hoes (7-5)

Starter Points Drafted: 115.82

Best Pick: $1 Mike Gesicki, 23 points (23 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $27 Brandon Aiyuk, 49.9 (1.85 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $29 Joe Burrow, 350.04 (12.07 Pp$)
Wasted $: 9

 Gibbs Some (3-9)

Starter Points Drafted: 115.24

Best Pick: $3 Keon Colemen, 45.5 points (15.16 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $4 Rome Odunze, .6  (.15 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $43 Jahmyr Gibbs, 220.8 (5.13 Pp$)
Wasted $: 4

Draft Grade D

Mormon Super Soakers (8-4)

Starter Points Drafted: 111.72

Best Pick: $1 Brian Thomas, 45.6 points (45.6 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $11 Keenan Allen, 8 (1.38 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $43 Saquon Barkley, 289.5 (6.73 Pp$)
Wasted $: 11

 Team Dbacks77 (1-11)

Starter Points Drafted: 111.4

Best Pick: $2 Zack Moss, 55.3 points (27.65 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $60 Christian McCaffrey, 26.7 (.45 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $30 Josh Allen, 256.32 (8.54 Pp$)
Wasted $: 29

Draft Grade F

Breece's Pieces (5-7)

Starter Points Drafted: 104.19

Best Pick: $3 Jameson Williams, 63.2 points (21.07 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $50 Jonathan Taylor, 133.2 (2.66 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $52 Breece Hall, 160.3 (3.08 Pp$)
Wasted $: 13

Shaner (2x Champ) (5-7)

Starter Points Drafted: 101.98

Best Pick: $1 Ricky Pearsall, 25 points (25 Points Per $)
Worst Pick: $13 Zamir White, 6  (.46 Pp$)
Highest Point Getter: $24 Alvin Kamara, 217.3 (9.05 Pp$)
Wasted $: 6

Previous Weeks Rankings

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 12

Playoff Outlook going into Week 12

Jefferson Aeroplane

Playoff Bye Chance: 97% 
Path to Bye: The Aeroplane flies its own path. To secure a bye, they need to either win 2 of the next 3 or just beat Davant's Inferno in Week 14.

To Infinity & Bijan

Playoff Bye Chance: 83%
Path to Bye: This seems pretty cut and dry.  They play the easiest schedule in the last 3 weeks and just need to win 2 of them to secure the bye.

 Davante's Inferno

Playoff Bye Chance: 17%
Path to Bye: Just win out and hope 1 of the 2 teams in front of them drops 2 games. Week 14 against Jefferson Aeroplane essentially decides the playoff bye situation.

Mormon Super Soakers

Playoff Bye Chance: 3%
Path to Bye: The dark horse in the playoff bye race.  They need to win out and hope 2 teams of the 3 in front of them lose multiple games.

Burrows Over Hoes

Playoff Chance: 70
Path to Playoffs: This team just needs to find 1 win in the last 3 weeks to make it in and maintain their ranking in points scored for the season. This should be doable with their week 14 matchup against BucketsOfSauce.

TakinMyTalents2Manila

Playoff Chance: 28
Path to Playoffs: They need to win at least 1 game and pray, as their points scored is only 10th. Week 13 is their critical matchup when it comes to making the playoffs. Two wins is realistically their path in.

Shaner (2x Champ)

Playoff Chance: 75
Path to Playoffs: 2 wins are needed to reach the promised land.  A Week 13 win against TakinMyTalents2Manila will also open the door for 2 other teams to fight for the last spot.

Ballbusters

Playoff Chance: 15
Path to Playoffs: Win 2 out of 3 and close the 52 point deficit in the "Points For" column to leapfrog Shaner (2x Champ) for the 6th spot. The also need the teams currently in 5th through 7th to win no more than 2 games the rest of the way.

Breece's Pieces

Playoff Chance: 13
Path to Playoffs: Win out and win big. They are currently 9th in points scored. Going 7-7 is entirely possible but winning by 33 points more than Shaner (2x Champ) seems unlikely.


Gibbs Some

Toilet Bowl Bye Chance: 33
Path out of Bye:  Just win baby! There is a two way race out of the bottom but this team has a clear edge with the Points Scored tiebreaker. Just go win for win with BucketsOfSauce and they get the extra game to avoid the honorific of Sacko.

BucketsOfSauce

Toilet Bowl Bye Chance:  66
Path out of Bye: Win and pray. They need to steal at least 1 more win and hope the current 10th place team fails to find a way to tick up in the W column over the next few weeks.

Team Dbacks77

Toilet Bowl Bye Chance: 99
Path out of Bye: Win out and hope both 10th and 11th place fail to find a win in the last leg of the season. They also need to achieve 10th in points scored by the end of the season. Which means they need to make up 126 points over the next 3 weeks.

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 11

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 10

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 9

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 8

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 7

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 6

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 5

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 4

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 3

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 2

Totally Rational Power Rankings Week 1